risk probability that an event will occur

So what if we were to use a likelihood matrix such as this? QualitativeĪll of the controls associated with the risk are extremely weak and/or non-existent. What will make this risk unlikely to rare is the effectiveness of the controls established within the restaurant. To my way of thinking, it is impossible to estimate the likelihood of this risk based on frequency. Likely to occur with less frequency than once every 10 years Likely to occur approximately once every 5 – 10 years Likely to occur approximately once every 5 years Likely to occur approximately once a year What would be the likelihood of this risk if we used this criteria? Qualitative Rating So, let’s take one of these – contaminated food served to restaurant patrons as a case study. The likelihood of these risks is going to be based on the effectiveness of the current control environment. The likelihood of these risks occurring is in no way going to be based on frequency or probability. Unauthorised release of, or alteration to client confidential information.Wrong medication administered to a patient.Worker exposed to unbonded/friable asbestos.Contaminated food served to restaurant patrons.I started to ask – is this an appropriate measure to determine the likelihood of risks such of these? It makes absolutely no sense to assess the likelihood of events that are not time or frequency dependent using time or frequency as the measure. That was until recently when it hit me like the proverbial ton of bricks. These descriptors, whilst standard across the industry, have not sat well with me for some time, but I was unsure why. The event may occur only in exceptional circumstances The event could occur at some time but is improbable Will undoubtedly happen/recur, possibly frequently Will probably happen/recur, but is not a persisting issue/circumstances You may have criteria similar to the following: Likelihood scoreįrequency How often might it/does it happenĭo not expect it to happen/recur but it is possible it may do so I have followed the conventional wisdom up until this point and used the ‘traditional’ criteria to express likelihood. Assessing the level of likelihood for risk is something I have been questioning for some considerable time.

Risk probability that an event will occur